Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade
Structure between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Complementariedad y Compatibilidad en la Estructura del Comercio de
Mercancías entre Vietnam y Brasil en el Período Posterior a la COVID-19
Complémentarité et compatibilité des échanges de matières premières
entre le Vietnam et le Brésil après la pandémie de COVID-19
Complementaridade e compatibilidade comercial na estrutura do comércio
de commodities entre o Vietnã e o Brasil no período pós-COVID-19
Este es un artículo de acceso abierto distribuido bajo los términos de la Licencia de Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial Internacional 4.0 (CC BY-
NC 4.0), que permite su uso, distribución y reproducción en cualquier medio, así como generar obras derivadas; siempre y cuando se reconozca al autor
original y se haga con nes no comerciales. Las opiniones y contenidos de los documentos publicados corresponden exclusivamente a sus autores.
ISSN 2707-7330
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rpi@isri.minrex.gob.cu
https://creativecommons.
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RNPS: No. 2092
Vol. VIII, No. 4 (octubre-diciembre) | 2026
Ph. D. Nguyen Minh Tuan
PhD in Economics. US and Canadian Research Center, Institute for European and American Studies, Vietnam Academy
of Social Sciences, Hanoi, Vietnam.
mtuanbthuy@gmail.com
orcid.org/0009-0000-0103-7057
M. Sc. Tran Manh Tung
Master in Human Resources Managment. Latin American Research Center, Institute for European and American Studies,
Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, Hanoi, Vietnam.
tungtran8989@gmail.com
0009-0003-2450-8992
Corresponding author: mtuanbthuy@gmail.com
Cómo citar (APA, séptima edición): Minh Tuan, N., & Manh Tung, T. (2026). Trade Complementarity and Compatibility
in the Commodity Trade Structure between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period. Política Internacional, VIII
(Nro. 4).
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22098336
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22098336
RECEIVED: July 22TH, 2026
APPROVED: SEPTEMBER 3RD, 2026
PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 19TH, 2026
275
Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
ABSTRACT This article analyzes the prospects for expansion of bilateral merchandise trade between Vietnam and
Brazil in the post COVID 19 context and the increase in U.S. taris in 2025. The study adopts an interdis-
ciplinary approach and uses the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) and the Import Compatibility Index
(ICI), calculated with Trade Map data (2019 2024), to assess the degree of t between Vietnam’s export
structure and Brazil’s import demand. The results indicate a moderately low level of complementarity (TCI
between 31 and 38), albeit with an increasing trend. The compatibility analysis for Vietnam’s main export
products (machinery, electronics, footwear, etc.) reveals levels ranging from low to moderately high, hi-
ghlighting industrial machinery (ICI=70.35). The main limiting factors identied are tari and non tari
barriers, geographical distance, internal weaknesses of Vietnamese rms (SMEs, low technology), and the
absence of an FTA. It is concluded that growth potential is signicant and that, despite non tari barriers
and geographical distance, market diversication and trade agreement negotiations are vital strategies
for both nations to strengthen their trade autonomy and achieve their exchange targets for 2030.
Keywords: Vietnam-Brazil trade, Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), U.S. tari policy, Emerging econo-
mies, Trade compatibility.
RESUMEN Este artículo analiza las perspectivas de expansión del comercio bilateral de mercancías entre Vietnam y
Brasil en el contexto posterior a la COVID-19 y ante el aumento de los aranceles estadounidenses previs-
to para 2025. El estudio adopta un enfoque interdisciplinario y utiliza el Índice de Complementariedad
Comercial (TCI) y el Índice de Compatibilidad de Importaciones (ICI), calculados con datos de Trade Map
(2019-2024), para evaluar el grado de ajuste entre la estructura exportadora de Vietnam y la demanda de
importaciones de Brasil. Los resultados indican un nivel de complementariedad moderadamente bajo (TCI
entre 31 y 38), aunque con una tendencia creciente. El análisis de compatibilidad para los principales pro-
ductos de exportación de Vietnam (maquinaria, electrónica, calzado, etc.) revela niveles que oscilan entre
bajos y moderadamente altos, destacando la maquinaria industrial (ICI=70,35). Los principales factores
limitantes identicados son las barreras arancelarias y no arancelarias, la distancia geográca, las debili-
dades internas de las empresas vietnamitas (pymes, baja tecnología) y la ausencia de un tratado de libre
comercio (TLC). Se concluye que el potencial de crecimiento es signicativo y que, a pesar de las barreras
no arancelarias y la distancia geográca, la diversicación de mercados y las negociaciones de acuerdos
comerciales constituyen estrategias vitales para que ambas naciones fortalezcan su autonomía comercial
y alcancen sus objetivos de intercambio para 2030.
Palabras clave: Comercio entre Vietnam y Brasil, Índice de Complementariedad Comercial (ICC), política
arancelaria de EE. UU., economías emergentes, compatibilidad comercial
RÉSUMÉ
Cet article analyse les perspectives d'expansion du commerce bilatéral de marchandises entre le Vietnam
et le Brésil dans le contexte post-COVID-19 et face à la hausse des droits de douane américains en 2025.
L'étude adopte une approche interdisciplinaire et utilise l'indice de complémentarité commerciale (ICC) et
l'indice de compatibilité des importations (ICI), calculés à partir des données de Trade Map (2019-2024),
an d'évaluer l'adéquation entre la structure des exportations vietnamiennes et la demande d'importa-
tions brésilienne. Les résultats indiquent un niveau de complémentarité modérément faible (ICC entre 31
et 38), malgré une tendance à la hausse. L'analyse de compatibilité des principaux produits d'exportation
vietnamiens (machines, électronique, chaussures, etc.) révèle des niveaux allant de faibles à modérément
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
INTRODUCTION
President Donald Trump's second term has had a
signicant impact on global trade, characterized by
a
higher
level
of
trade
protectionism
through
the
imposition of increased taris on imported goods.
For
Vietnam,
the
United
States
initially
proposed
a reciprocal tari of up to 46% on Vietnamese ex-
ports. Following bilateral negotiations, the U.S. go-
vernment decided to impose a 20% tari on most
Vietnamese
exports
and
a
40%
tari
on
goods
transshipped through Vietnam from third countries.
Consequently,
the
practice
of
using
Vietnam
as
a
transshipment hub for exports from third countries
to the U.S. market has become far less viable.
For Brazil, President Donald Trump signed an exe-
cutive order imposing an additional 40% tari on
most Brazilian products, raising the total tari on
the majority of Brazilian exports to the United Sta-
tes to 50% (White House, 2025).
The imposition of high U.S. taris on exports from
both Vietnam and Brazil has, to some extent, crea-
ted
new
opportunities
for
strengthening
bilate-
ral
trade
relations
between
the
two
countries.
In
recent
years,
Brazil
has
imported
goods
worth
élevés, notamment pour les machines industrielles (ICI = 70,35). Les principaux facteurs limitants identiés
sont les barrières tarifaires et non tarifaires, la distance géographique, les faiblesses internes des entre-
prises vietnamiennes (PME, faible niveau technologique) et l'absence d'accord de libre-échange. Il ressort
de cette étude que le potentiel de croissance est important et que, malgré les barrières non tarifaires et la
distance géographique, la diversication des marchés et les négociations d'accords commerciaux sont des
stratégies essentielles pour que les deux pays renforcent leur autonomie commerciale et atteignent leurs
objectifs d'échanges commerciaux pour 2030.
Mots-clés : Commerce Vietnam-Brésil, Indice de complémentarité commerciale (ICC), Politique tarifaire
américaine, Économies émergentes, Compatibilité commerciale
RESUMO
Este artigo analisa as perspectivas de expansão do comércio bilateral de mercadorias entre o Vietnã e
o Brasil no contexto pós-COVID-19 e o aumento das tarifas americanas em 2025. O estudo adota uma
abordagem interdisciplinar e utiliza o Índice de Complementaridade Comercial (ICC) e o Índice de Com-
patibilidade de Importações (ICI), calculados com dados do Trade Map (2019-2024), para avaliar o grau de
adequação entre a estrutura de exportação do Vietnã e a demanda de importação do Brasil. Os resultados
indicam um nível moderadamente baixo de complementaridade (ICC entre 31 e 38), embora com uma
tendência crescente. A análise de compatibilidade para os principais produtos de exportação do Vietnã
(máquinas, eletrônicos, calçados, etc.) revela níveis que variam de baixo a moderadamente alto, com des-
taque para máquinas industriais (ICI = 70,35). Os principais fatores limitantes identicados são as barreiras
tarifárias e não tarifárias, a distância geográca, as fragilidades internas das empresas vietnamitas (PMEs,
baixa tecnologia) e a ausência de um acordo de livre comércio. Conclui-se que o potencial de crescimento
é signicativo e que, apesar das barreiras não tarifárias e da distância geográca, a diversicação de mer-
cado e as negociações de acordos comerciais são estratégias vitais para que ambas as nações fortaleçam
sua autonomia comercial e alcancem suas metas de câmbio para 2030.
Palavras-chave: Comércio entre Vietnã e Brasil, Índice de Complementaridade Comercial (ICC), Política
tarifária dos EUA, Economias emergentes, Compatibilidade comercial
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
approximately
USD
200
billion
annually,
of
which
around 30% originated from Asia (Santander Tra-
de, 2025). Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam is Bra-
zil's largest trading partner, while Brazil is Vietnam's
largest trading partner in South America. According
to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC
World, 2025), Vietnam ranks as Brazil's 18th largest
trading partner among 223 trading partners, whe-
reas Brazil ranks as Vietnam's 27th largest trading
partner among 152 partners. Despite these rankings,
Vietnamese exports account for only about 1.3% of
Brazil's
total
imports
and
approximately
4.4%
of
Brazil's imports from Asia, suggesting considerable
potential for further expansion of Vietnam's exports
to the Brazilian market.
There is limited academic research on Vietnam-Bra-
zil
trade
relations;
notable
examples
include
the
article by Tran Manh Tung (2023) published in the
proceedings of a national conference organized by
the Institute for the Americas, as well as studies on
Brazilian trade issues - such as those by Fernando
J. Ribeiro (2021), and reports by Luis Diaz (2024)
regarding
the
suspension
of
tilapia
imports
from
Vietnam to Brazil, and work by Minh Huy (2025).
Meanwhile, TCI and ICI indices are frequently em-
ployed to assess bilateral trade, as seen in the study
by Zhe Tao et al. (2025) on agricultural trade be-
tween China and Cambodia. Consequently, this ar-
ticle applies the TCI and ICI indices to quantify the
structural compatibility of exports and imports and
the depth of value chain integration between the
two countries' goods.
The article combines an analysis of TCI and ICI indi-
ces with qualitative insights to provide a more de-
tailed assessment of the prospects for Vietnamese
goods exports to Brazil in the near future.
DEVELOPMENT
1. Research Methodology and Analytical Framework
This study adopts an interdisciplinary approach by
integrating
theories
of
international
relations,
in-
ternational trade, and the theory of tari preferen-
ces and their implications for developing countries
(Sundara Raja, 1966) as the theoretical foundation
for qualitative analysis. The study draws upon both
primary and secondary sources, supplemented by
trade
data
obtained
from
Trade
Map
to
support
the
analysis.
In
addition,
conventional
research
methods,
including
statistical
analysis,
descriptive
analysis, and data analysis, are employed to exami-
ne the current state of trade relations and to assess
the degree of trade complementarity and compa-
tibility
between
selected
Vietnamese
export
pro-
ducts and Brazil during the post-COVID-19 period.
Based on these analyses, the study identies the
opportunities and challenges facing bilateral trade
and evaluates the prospects for expanding trade
relations
between
Vietnam
and
Brazil
in
the
co-
ming years.
To assess the degree of trade complementarity be-
tween
Vietnam
and
Brazil,
this
study
employs
the
Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), a widely used in-
dicator for measuring the extent to which the export
structure of one country matches the import structure
of its trading partner. A higher TCI value indicates a
greater degree of complementarity and, consequent-
ly, stronger potential for bilateral trade expansion. The
TCI is calculated using the following formula:
Where:
TCI: Trade Complementarity Index.
X_i: The share of exports of product i in the total
exports of the exporting country.
M_i: The share of imports of product i in the total
imports of the importing country.
TCI = 100: The export structure of one country and
the import structure of the other country are per-
fectly complementary.
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
TCI = 0: There is no trade complementarity between
the export structure of one country and the import
structure of the trading partner.
To
assess
the
compatibility
of
Vietnam's
export
products with Brazil's import structure, this study
employs the Trade Compatibility Index (ICI), an in-
dicator used to measure the degree of compatibility
between the export structure of a product from the
exporting country and the import structure of the
same product in the importing country. The ICI is
calculated using the following formula:
Where:
ICI: Trade Compatibility Index.
X
i
: The share of exports of product i in the total ex-
ports of the exporting country.
M
i
:
The
share
of
imports
of
product
i
in
the
total
imports of the importing country.
For
the
purposes
of
this
study,
the
ICI
values
are
classied into four categories: (1) 0–25: low com-
patibility; (2) 26–50: moderately low compatibility;
(3)
51–75:
moderately
high
compatibility;
and
(4)
76–100: high compatibility.
The data used to calculate the TCI and ICI in this
study were obtained from the Trade Map database
of the International Trade Centre (ITC).
3. Results and Discussion
3.1.
The
Current
State
of
Bilateral
Trade
in
the
Post-COVID-19 Period
The COVID-19 pandemic had a signicant impact on tra-
de between Vietnam and Brazil, particularly on Vietnam's
exports to Brazil, which declined by 15.1% in 2020 and by
Table 1. Vietnam–Brazil Merchandise Trade, 2019 – Present. Unit: USD million; %
▮
Source: Compiled by the authors based on data from Trade Map and the General Department of Vietnam Customs.
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
1.3% in 2022. However, exports recovered strongly in 2021,
recording a growth rate of 24.3% compared with 2020
and 5.58% compared with the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
Positive export growth was also recorded in 2023, 2024,
and the rst seven months of 2025, indicating a sustained
recovery in Vietnam's exports to the Brazilian market.
As
shown
in
Table
1,
bilateral
merchandise
trade
has grown steadily since the COVID-19 pandemic,
with particularly strong growth in Brazil's exports
to Vietnam. Since 2020, the trade balance has con-
sistently favored Brazil. Even during the pandemic,
Brazilian exports to Vietnam continued to expand,
whereas Vietnam's exports to Brazil were adversely
aected by the lockdown measures implemented by
the Vietnamese government to contain the spread
of COVID-19, which disrupted both production and
trade activities. A closer examination, however, re-
veals
that
most
of
Vietnam's
imports
from
Brazil
consist of intermediate inputs for domestic produc-
tion, including soybeans for animal feed production
and
cotton
for
the
textile
and
garment
industry.
During
the
rst
seven
months
of
2025,
Vietnam's
exports to Brazil reached more than USD 1.5 billion,
an increase of approximately 0.3% compared with
the same period of the previous year, while imports
from Brazil exceeded USD 2.9 billion, representing
a decline of 4.7%. These gures suggest a gradual
narrowing
of
Vietnam's
merchandise
trade
decit
with Brazil.
Regarding total bilateral trade turnover, the data in-
dicate that, with the exception of a slight decline in
2020, trade between the two countries has expan-
ded rapidly since the pandemic. Total bilateral tra-
de increased by 19.5% in 2021 and by 16.1% in 2022.
Nevertheless, the trade balance continued to favor
Brazil, with Brazil's trade surplus widening conside-
rably during the 2022–2024 period.
Regarding the dynamics of bilateral trade, Vietnam's
exports
to
Brazil
experienced
temporary
contrac-
tions during the COVID-19 pandemic, declining by
15.3%
in
2020
before
rebounding
strongly
with
growth of 24.1% in 2021. Export growth moderated
thereafter, recording a slight decline in 2022, but re-
turned to positive territory in both 2023 and 2024.
In contrast, Vietnam's imports from Brazil remained
relatively resilient throughout the pandemic and ex-
panded rapidly from 2021 onward, reecting Brazil's
increasing
role
as
a
supplier
of
agricultural
com-
modities
and
industrial
raw
materials
to
Vietnam.
Consequently, the bilateral trade balance has con-
sistently favored Brazil since 2020, with Vietnam's
trade decit widening as imports grew faster than
exports.
Another notable feature of the bilateral trade struc-
ture is that Vietnam's exports to Brazil consist pre-
dominantly of consumer goods, including transport
equipment
and
parts,
computers,
mobile
phones,
electronic
products
and
components,
footwear,
seafood, and textiles and garments. Overall, these
products have established a relatively strong posi-
tion in the Brazilian market.
An
examination
of
Brazil's
recent
import
trends
shows that pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery
and equipment, fuels and lubricants, as well as parts
and
accessories
for
motor
vehicles
and
tractors,
have
become
the
country's
major
import
catego-
ries, accounting for approximately 89% of total im-
ports. Imports of energy-related products have also
increased
in
response
to
rising
domestic
energy
demand
from
industrial
and
public
utility
sectors.
Furthermore,
Brazil's
commitment
to
expanding
renewable energy has stimulated imports of solar
panels
and
wind
turbines
as
part
of
its
transition
toward a more sustainable energy system (Tradei-
mex, 2025).
Although Vietnam is a net importer of petroleum
products
and
natural
gas,
it
also
exports
mine-
ral fuels and petroleum products, machinery and
electrical equipment, and plastics and plastic pro-
ducts (Ngoc Ngân, 2024). Among these product
groups, machinery and electrical equipment rank
among Brazil's most important import categories,
while
plastics
and
plastic
products
rank
eighth.
Vietnam
exported
plastics
and
plastic
products
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
worth
more
than
USD
5.4
billion
to
the
United
States in 2024; however, this product group has
yet
to
become
one
of
Vietnam's
major
exports
to
Brazil.
In
2023,
plastics
and
plastic
products
ranked
eighth
among
Vietnam's
leading
export
categories to the Brazilian market (Trading Eco-
nomics, 2025). At present, machinery and electri-
cal equipment remain the only major Vietnamese
export
category
that
has
secured
a
strong
and
stable position in Brazil.
With
a
population
of
approximately
200
million
and an upper-middle-income economy, Brazil re-
presents
a
promising
market
for
Vietnamese
ex-
ports.
Currently,
Vietnam's
exports
account
for
only about 1% of Brazil's total imports, while even
Vietnam's
leading
export
products
generally
re-
present only 5–7% of Brazil's imports within their
respective
categories.
Moreover,
as
Brazil
is
one
of the largest markets in the Americas, the higher
U.S. taris imposed on exports from both Vietnam
and
Brazil
have
created
favorable
conditions
for
the
two
countries
to
further
strengthen
bilateral
merchandise trade.
3.2. Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in
the Trade Structure between Vietnam and Brazil
According
to
the
authors'
calculations
based
on
data from Trade Map, the Trade Complementarity
Index (TCI) between Vietnam and Brazil has gene-
rally ranged from 31 to 38.
As shown in Table 2, the merchandise trade struc-
ture between Vietnam and Brazil exhibits a mo-
derate-low
level
of
trade
complementarity.
This
nding suggests that there remains considerable
potential
for
further
expanding
bilateral
mer-
chandise trade in the coming years. Moreover, the
upward
trend
in
the
Trade
Complementarity
In-
dex (TCI), which increased from 31.02 in 2019 to
38.23 in 2024, indicates that the growing volume
of bilateral trade has been accompanied by an in-
creasing degree of complementarity between the
export
structure
of
one
country
and
the
import
structure of the other.
Table 3 shows that the six product categories with
export
values
exceeding
USD
100
million
from
Vietnam to Brazil exhibit Trade Compatibility Index
(ICI) values ranging from low to moderately high.
Among
them,
only
industrial
machinery
and
me-
chanical equipment recorded an ICI of 70.35, pla-
cing
it
in
the
moderately
high
compatibility
cate-
gory. This result indicates a relatively good match
between
Vietnam's
export
structure
and
Brazil's
import demand for this product group. Vietnamese
industrial machinery products are increasingly mee-
ting
Brazil's
growing
import
demand,
particularly
as
the
country
has
accelerated
its
post-COVID-19
industrialization
process.
Brazil's
National
Council
for
Industrial
Development
(CNDI)
has
promoted
industrial modernization programs by encouraging
imports of machinery, components, and advanced
technologies (Gov.br, 2024). In addition, data from
the
International
Trade
Centre
(ITC)
indicate
that
Brazil's
imports
of
this
product
category
grew
at
an average annual rate of approximately 6% during
2020–2024, reecting stable and sustained market
demand.
Year
TCI
2019
31,02
2020
34,39
2021
34,26
2022
32,76
2023
36,42
2024
38,23
Table 2. Trade Complementarity Index of the Mer-
chandise
Trade
Structure
between
Vietnam
and
Brazil, 2019–2024
▮
Source: Authors' calculations based on Trade Map data.
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
Three product groups—rubber and rubber products
(HS 40), footwear (HS 64), and sh and other se-
afood (HS 03)—recorded ICI values of 23.87, 5.44,
and
20.85,
respectively,
placing
them
in
the
low
compatibility category. These results suggest that
these products have relatively limited market pene-
tration in Brazil.
Rubber
and
rubber
products
(HS
40),
consisting
mainly of natural rubber and synthetic rubber used
as
industrial
inputs
for
tires,
conveyor
belts,
and
other
engineering
products,
recorded
an
ICI
of
23.87. Although this product group ranked second
in
Vietnam's
exports
to
Brazil
by
export
value,
it
accounted for only about 7.3% of Brazil's total im-
ports of rubber and rubber products in 2024. Mo-
reover, Brazil itself has a relatively well-developed
rubber industry. The Brazilian rubber market is also
characterized by stringent technical standards, clo-
se control over production chains, and government
support policies for domestic rubber producers, all
of which constrain the expansion of Vietnamese ex-
ports.
Footwear, one of Vietnam's leading export indus-
tries worldwide, recorded a relatively low ICI. This is
largely because Brazil possesses a strong domestic
footwear industry with well-established production
capacity, internationally recognized brands, and an
integrated domestic value chain. For example, Ha-
vaianas,
produced
by
Alpargatas,
dominates
Bra-
zil's
mass-market
footwear
segment,
with
annual
production exceeding 200 million pairs distributed
across more than 100 countries (Alpargatas, 2023).
Consequently, although Vietnam is the world's se-
cond-largest
footwear
exporter
after
China
(Vân,
Table 3. Trade Compatibility Index (ICI) between Vietnam and Brazil by Product, 2024
▮
Source: Authors' calculations based on Trade Map data.
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
2024), its exports remain concentrated in higher-in-
come markets such as the United States, the Euro-
pean Union, and Japan rather than Brazil.
Fish and other seafood (HS 03) generated exports
of USD 129 million to Brazil in 2024, accounting for
approximately 8.5% of Brazil's total imports of this
product
category
and
recording
an
ICI
of
20.85.
Brazil's
seafood
market
is
characterized
by
strict
sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, language
barriers, and measures protecting domestic produ-
cers, all of which have constrained Vietnam's export
performance. Nevertheless, several Vietnamese se-
afood
products
possess
competitive
price
advan-
tages and could gradually strengthen their market
position through improved branding and marketing
strategies. The growing presence of Vietnamese se-
afood enterprises in Brazil also indicates increasing
market orientation toward this destination.
The remaining two product groups—electrical ma-
chinery, equipment and components (HS 85), and
iron,
steel
and
articles
thereof
(HS
72)—recorded
moderately low compatibility levels. Electrical ma-
chinery and equipment has consistently generated
exports
exceeding
USD
1
billion
annually,
accoun-
ting for approximately 3.3% of Brazil's total imports
in this category. Its ICI of 45.85 indicates a mode-
rate
degree
of
compatibility
between
Vietnam's
export structure and Brazil's import demand. Bra-
zil imports approximately USD 30 billion worth of
electrical machinery and equipment each year, with
China, the United States, and Germany serving as
its
principal
suppliers
due
to
their
technological
advantages,
strong
brands,
well-developed
mar-
keting strategies, and established local distribution
networks. Although Vietnam has developed a com-
petitive
electronics
manufacturing
industry,
much
of its production remains concentrated in assembly
activities with relatively low domestic value added
and
heavy
dependence
on
multinational
corpora-
tions within global value chains. Vietnamese enter-
prises should therefore focus on market segments
where
they
possess
stronger
competitive
advan-
tages, such as semiconductor components, power
transmission
equipment,
and
household
electrical
appliances, while targeting product niches that de-
monstrate higher complementarity with Brazil's im-
port demand.
Iron, steel and articles thereof (HS 72) recorded an
ICI
of
38.52,
with
exports
approaching
USD
200
million and accounting for approximately 4.14% of
Brazil's total imports in this category. These gures
indicate considerable growth potential if supported
by appropriate industrial and trade policies. The re-
latively modest compatibility level is partly attribu-
table
to
intense
competition
from
major
steel-ex-
porting countries such as China, South Korea, and
Türkiye (World Steel Association, 2024). Dierences
in
technical
standards,
environmental
regulations,
and traceability requirements also pose challenges
for Vietnamese steel exporters. At the same time,
Brazil's demand for steel products has increased as
a result of infrastructure investment under the In-
vestment
Partnerships
Program
(PPI).
To
improve
competitiveness,
Vietnamese
enterprises
should
invest in technological upgrading, enhance product
quality, and strengthen market research in order to
meet Brazilian technical standards and international
production requirements.
Overall,
bilateral
merchandise
trade
between
Vietnam and Brazil has recovered steadily in the
post-COVID-19 period, making the bilateral trade
targets of USD 10 billion by 2025 and USD 30 bi-
llion
by
2030
increasingly
achievable.
Although
the
Trade
Complementarity
Index
remains
at
a
moderately low level, it has shown a clear upward
trend,
indicating
that
the
trade
structures
of
the
two countries are becoming increasingly comple-
mentary. At present, only six Vietnamese product
groups
record
export
values
exceeding
USD
100
million in the Brazilian market, and most of them
exhibit low or moderately low compatibility levels.
While these compatibility indicators suggest that
Vietnam's
current
market
position
in
Brazil
re-
mains limited, they also point to substantial unta-
pped potential for expanding Vietnamese exports
in the years ahead.
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Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
3.3. Challenges and Constraints
Despite
being
the
world's
tenth-largest
economy,
Brazil continues to face a number of structural cha-
llenges, including unstable economic growth, politi-
cal fragmentation, relatively high unemployment, ele-
vated production costs, and persistent ination. The
absence
of
a
free
trade
agreement
(FTA)
between
Vietnam and Brazil also places exporters from both
countries
at
a
competitive
disadvantage.
Vietna-
mese products typically face import taris ranging
from 15% to 25%, while additional federal and state
taxes and surcharges may increase the overall im-
port
tax
burden
to
between
20%
and
35%,
parti-
cularly for textile and footwear products (V
ũ
Khuê,
2024a). These costs reduce the price competitive-
ness of Vietnamese goods in the Brazilian market.
In
addition,
Vietnam's
exports
encounter
various
non-tari barriers, including tari-rate quotas, sa-
nitary and phytosanitary measures, technical stan-
dards,
customs
inspections,
and
packaging
requi-
rements. Import procedures in Brazil are generally
regarded as complex and time-consuming. Further-
more, the long geographical distance between the
two countries increases logistics costs, while Portu-
guese—the ocial language of Brazil—remains an
additional barrier for Vietnamese enterprises see-
king to enter the Brazilian market.
At the same time, Vietnamese enterprises also face
several internal constraints that limit their ability to
expand exports to Brazil.
First,
Vietnam's
business
sector
is
dominated
by
small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which
account for approximately 98.7% of all enterprises,
including
69.3%
micro-enterprises,
24.5%
sma-
ll
enterprises,
and
3.5%
medium-sized
enterprises
(Hoàng Th
ị
H
ồ
ng, 2025). Their limited nancial re-
sources and production capacity constrain their abi-
lity to penetrate distant markets such as Brazil.
Second, Vietnamese enterprises remain weakly inte-
grated into global value chains. Of the approxima-
tely
one
million
enterprises
currently
operating
in
Vietnam, only around 0.5% participate directly in glo-
bal supply chains, and only about 100 rms serve as
rst-tier suppliers for multinational corporations (V
ũ
Khuê, 2024b). This limits opportunities to expand ex-
ports through international production networks.
Third, the technological capabilities of Vietnamese
enterprises remain relatively low. Only about 6% of
enterprises
employ
technologies
originating
from
Europe and the United States, while between 30%
and 45% rely on technologies imported from China.
Nearly 65% of production technologies currently in
use are more than 20 years old, with most classied
as medium or below-average in terms of technolo-
gical sophistication. Only around 15% of enterprises
have adopted recently developed production tech-
nologies (Phan Th
ị
Ng
ọ
c Hoa, 2023). These tech-
nological limitations reduce productivity and make
it more dicult for rms to meet the technical and
quality standards required in the Brazilian market.
Fourth,
labor
productivity
remains
relatively
low
compared
with
regional
competitors.
During
the
2011–2020 period, Vietnam's average annual labor
productivity
growth
reached
5.29%.
Nevertheless,
Vietnam's labor productivity was equivalent to only
11.3% of Singapore's level, 33.1% of Malaysia's, 59.1%
of
Thailand's,
77%
of
Indonesia's,
and
86%
of
the
Philippines'
(Qu
ế
Chi,
2024).
Lower
productivity
continues to constrain the competitiveness of Viet-
namese exports.
Fifth, Vietnamese enterprises continue to face di-
culties in building internationally recognized brands.
Although
190
enterprises
had
been
awarded
the
Vietnam National Brand designation by 2024 (An
Chi, 2024), this number remains very small relative
to the total number of enterprises nationwide. Limi-
ted brand recognition reduces the competitiveness
of Vietnamese products in overseas markets, inclu-
ding Brazil.
Finally, corporate governance capacity remains rela-
tively weak. Large enterprises account for less than
3% of all Vietnamese rms, and their average scale
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
is considerably smaller than that of enterprises in
other ASEAN countries. According to the Vietnam
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI, 2022),
Vietnam's
corporate
governance
performance
re-
mains
substantially
below
regional
standards,
rea-
ching only about half the level observed in Singapore,
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. This
limits
rms'
ability
to
formulate
long-term
market
strategies
and
compete
eectively
in
demanding
international markets (VCCI, 2022).
CONCLUSIONS
Prospects for Bilateral Trade
Based on the above analysis, bilateral merchandi-
se trade between Vietnam and Brazil is expected to
continue expanding in the coming years. The com-
mitment demonstrated by the leaders of both coun-
tries to deepen economic cooperation and improve
market access provides a favorable foundation for
negotiating the rst bilateral Free Trade Agreement
(FTA). A gradual reduction in tari and non-tari
barriers
would
further
facilitate
trade
and
streng-
then bilateral economic relations.
In addition to pursuing a bilateral FTA, Vietnam and
Brazil can further promote trade through cooperation
within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS and the
ASEAN–Community of Latin American and Caribbean
States (CELAC) partnership, as well as by taking ad-
vantage
of
the
rapid
development
of
cross-border
e-commerce. Digital platforms such as Mercado Livre
in Brazil and Shopee in Vietnam oer new opportu-
nities for enterprises to expand market access while
reducing transaction and distribution costs.
In early 2025, Brazil lifted its import ban on Viet-
namese
tilapia
and
simultaneously
opened
nego-
tiations to allow Vietnamese pangasius to enter the
Brazilian market. As a result, Vietnam's pangasius
exports to Brazil reached USD 55 million in the rst
quarter of 2025, representing a 67% increase com-
pared
with
the
same
period
of
the
previous
year.
Brazil consequently became the third-largest export
market for Vietnamese pangasius, after China and
the United States (Minh Huy, 2025).
Total
bilateral
merchandise
trade
reached
nearly
USD 6.7 billion in 2024 and almost USD 4.5 billion
during
the
rst
seven
months
of
2025,
indicating
that the bilateral trade target of USD 10 billion is
well within reach. If the challenges and constraints
identied above are eectively addressed, increa-
sing bilateral trade to approximately USD 15 billion
by 2030 would also be a realistic objective. Brazil's
large
domestic
market,
diversied
consumer
pre-
ferences,
and
growing
demand
provide
favorable
conditions
for
further
expanding
Vietnamese
ex-
ports as economic ties between the two countries
continue to deepen.
General conclusion
Global
trade
experienced
unprecedented
disrup-
tions following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pan-
demic. Measures adopted worldwide to contain the
spread of the virus interrupted production activities,
disrupted global supply chains, and accelerated the
restructuring of international production and trade
networks. More recently, the United States' adop-
tion of higher import taris has created additional
challenges for the recovery of global trade. Vietnam
is
currently
subject
to
U.S.
taris
of
approxima-
tely
20%,
roughly
double
the
previous
rate,
while
Brazilian exports face taris of around 50%, signi-
cantly reducing the competitiveness of products
from both countries in the U.S. market. Under these
circumstances, diversifying export destinations be-
yond the United States has become an increasingly
important strategy not only for Vietnam and Brazil
but also for many other exporting countries.
Among alternative markets, Brazil has emerged as
one of the most promising destinations for Viet-
namese exports. As the largest economy in Latin
America,
Brazil
oers
substantial
market
oppor-
tunities and also serves as a strategic gateway to
the broader Mercosur market. The ndings of this
study indicate that although the complementarity
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
and compatibility of the merchandise trade structure
between Vietnam and Brazil remain at moderate le-
vels, both indicators have shown a positive upward
trend, suggesting considerable potential for expan-
ding
bilateral
trade.
To
fully
realize
this
potential,
however,
Vietnamese
enterprises
need
not
only
to
address their internal constraints but also to accele-
rate technological upgrading, improve product qua-
lity, strengthen international branding, and enhance
competitiveness.
Such
eorts
will
be
essential
for
achieving sustainable export growth and deepening
Vietnam's long-term trade relationship with Brazil.
This study has certain limitations; it is conned to
the partnership between the two nations and has
not yet expanded to include an in-depth analysis of
competitors. Furthermore, the scope is restricted to
trade in goods, excluding services, investment, and
intra-industry trade. The research team intends to
address these aspects in a separate study.
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CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that there are no conicts of
interest related to this article.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Not aplicable
AUTHORSHIP CONTRIBUTION:
Nguyen
Minh
Tuan:
Conceptualization,
Data
cu-
ration,
Formal
analysis,
Research,
Methodology;
Project administration, Resourses, Software, Super-
vision,
Validation,
Visualization,
Writing
-
original
draft, Writing - revision and editing.
Tran Manh Tung: Conceptualization, Data curation,
Research,
Project
administration,
Resourses,
Sof-
tware,
Supervision,
Validation,
Writing
-
original
draft, Writing - revision and editing.
FUNDING
Not applicable.
PREPRINT
Not published.
STATEMENT ON THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL IN-
TELLIGENCE MODELS
The author declares that Articial Intelligence was
used solely as a supporting tool for translating the
title, abstract and keywords into English and Spa-
nish,
and
for
correcting
spelling
and
grammatical
errors. Al was not considered a co-author.
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Trade Complementarity and Compatibility in the Commodity Trade Structure
between Vietnam and Brazil in the Post-COVID-19 Period
Minh Tuan y Manh Tung
RESEARCH ETHICS STATEMENT
Not applicable.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Not applicable.
COPYRIGHT
The
copyright
is
held
by
the
authors,
who
grant
Journal
Política
Internacional
exclusive
rights
for
rst publication. The authors may enter into addi-
tional agreements for the non-exclusive distribution
of the version of the work published in this journal
(for example, posting in an institutional repository,
on a personal website, publishing a translation, or as
a book chapter), with acknowledgment that it was
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